Nigeria unable to perform up to OPEC oil quota target for six months
File photo: Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
• Expectations are that Nigeria will meet up with its crude production, especially as the Dangote refinery announced it has reached its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
Nigeria underperformed with its crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day approved by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the first month of 2026, extending its streak of underperformance to six consecutive months.
According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels of crude oil per day in January 2026. Specifically, output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd in January, representing an increase of about 38,000 barrels per day.
Despite the marginal improvement, production remained below the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month the country has missed its OPEC target, spanning August 2025 to January 2026.
Crude oil output had dipped in December 2025 by 14,000 barrels per day, despite government efforts to ramp up production. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that production fell from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December, instead of rising to meet the OPEC quota.
In 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil production fell below its OPEC quota in nine months, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. Year-on-year, crude production declined by over 80,000 barrels per day. Nigeria opened 2025 strongly, producing 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation.
Output, however, slipped below the quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened further in March, when production averaged 1.40 mbpd, representing one of the widest shortfalls of the year.
Although output recovered modestly in April at 1.49 mbpd and May at 1.45 mbpd, Nigeria remained under its OPEC ceiling until June, when crude production edged up to 1.51 mbpd, marginally exceeding the quota. The country sustained this momentum in July, producing 1.51 mbpd, before slipping below the threshold again in the following months.
As 2026 progresses, expectations are that Nigeria will ramp up crude production, especially as the Dangote refinery announced it has reached its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the new Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to increase oil production. In a statement issued by the commission’s Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, the NUPRC boss said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.
According to her, the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the administration’s plan to grow Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.
Eyesan said the commission would pursue production and revenue growth by recovering shut-in volumes with economic value, arresting natural field decline, reducing losses, and accelerating time-to-first oil, without imposing additional regulatory burdens or transaction costs on operators.
