Manny Ita
A fragile stability in Nigeria’s food market is under immediate threat following a sudden ₦100 per litre hike in the ex-depot price of petrol by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery today, Thursday, January 29, 2026. The price adjustment, which saw gantry rates climb from ₦699 to ₦799 per litre, has already begun filtering through to retail stations, with pump prices hitting as high as ₦910 per litre in major cities.
This energy cost spike comes at a critical juncture for the Nigerian economy. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that headline inflation had successfully cooled to 15.15% this month—a dramatic descent from the near 40% levels recorded a year ago. Food inflation, in particular, had shown significant moderation, dropping to 10.84% year-on-year in December 2025 as post-festive supply chains stabilized and the impact of the “Decade of Gas” initiatives began to take hold.
At the Mile 12 International Market in Lagos and other major food hubs, traders are warning that these gains could be short-lived. “We were just beginning to breathe,” said Alhaji Muhammed Audu, a spokesperson for the Mile 12 market. “The cost of a bag of rice had finally settled between ₦50,000 and ₦55,000, and tomatoes were coming down. But once the trucks start charging ₦100,000 more for a trip from the North because of fuel, we have no choice but to add it to the price of the produce.”
The refinery’s management defended the move as a “modest realignment to sustainable levels” following a period of temporary price support provided during the festive season. However, the timing has sparked concerns among economic analysts who fear a “second wave” of cost-push inflation. While the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had recently projected inflation to drop to 12.94% by the end of 2026, those forecasts were anchored on declining fuel and food costs—a premise that is now being tested by the reality at the pumps.
For the average Nigerian household, the ₦100 hike represents a potential reversal of recent “pocketbook relief.” As logistics companies prepare to adjust their manifests today, the market’s attention remains fixed on whether the federal government will intervene or if the new ₦900+ per litre price point will become the new baseline for 2026.
