Nigeria’s excess crude account grows 13% in two years
… fund fell to N17.21bn in April 2024 before recovering through 2025.
Excess Crude Account of Nigeria rose 13 per cent in two years while the Stabilisation Account more than tripled, an analysis of presentations made by the Accountant-General of the Federation to the National Economic Council shows.
The review covers 15 NEC meetings between June 15, 2023, and October 23, 2025. It has been observed that the ECA slowly rose from $473,754.57 at the council’s inaugural meeting under President Bola Tinubu to $535,823.39 at the latest session, an increase of $62,068.82.
Over the same period, the Stabilisation Account climbed from N26.63bn to N87.67bn, a gain of N61.03bn and about 229 per cent. The Development of Natural Resources Fund grew from N96.90bn to N141.59bn, a 46 per cent increase.
A month-to-month analysis revealed that the Stabilisation Fund fell to N17.21bn in April 2024 before recovering through 2025; Natural Resources slid to N26.85bn by November 2024 and then rebuilt steadily to N125.82bn in September 2025 and N141.59bn in October.
The ECA, by contrast, was generally flat throughout the period and then picked up in the second half of 2025. The Excess Crude Account is a sovereign buffer created in 2004 under the Obasanjo Administration to save oil earnings above the budget benchmark price for stabilisation and investment.
The Stabilisation Account is a federation account set-aside to cushion state and local governments against revenue shortfalls and cash-flow shocks, while the Development of Natural Resources Fund is a dedicated pool for developing and diversifying Nigeria’s natural resource base, including solid minerals, funding projects and policy programmes approved by the Federation Allocation Accounts Committee and NEC.
While the ECA grew by 13 per cent under the Tinubu administration, the balance has largely remained a shadow of its former self. During the oil-price boom of 2008, under President Umaru Yar’Adua, the account exceeded $20bn. However, it gradually eroded after successive withdrawals and price collapses in the decade that followed.
The increase mirrors key policy directions by the NEC during the period under review. In December 2023, for instance, the council reconstituted ad-hoc committees on crude theft and economic affairs. The committee was initially established under former President Muhammadu Buhari in August 2022 to combat crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism that had crippled national production and forced international oil companies to shut down key pipelines.
When President Tinubu reconstituted the committee in December 2023, daily oil production had dropped to between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels per day, below the country’s OPEC quota, resulting in major foreign-exchange shortfalls. Output recovered to about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025.
During the review period, the council also endorsed the $617.7m i-DICE programme to spur tech jobs and pushed for food security measures. Through 2025, NEC backed sectoral reforms in the power sector and, at its 153rd meeting on October 23, 2025, approved a nationwide crackdown on gold smuggling while supporting a revamp of training schools for security agencies.
Also, states drew on statutory transfers during a high-inflation cycle, keeping pressure on naira-denominated accounts even as reforms such as the removal of the fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange window aimed to restore macro stability.
The NEC, a constitutional advisory body chaired by the Vice President and comprising the 36 state governors, the Central Bank Governor, and key ministers, meets monthly to coordinate economic policy but often deliberates on broader governance challenges. The council meets on the third Thursday of the month. However, its sessions have been infrequent over the last couple of months.
Since assuming office, the NEC has held at least 15 meetings. They include meetings held on June 15, 2023, July 20, 2023; August 17, 2023; September 28, 2023; December 21, 2023; February 22, 2024; March 21, 2024; May 16, 2024; June 27, 2024; September 4, 2024; November 21, 2024; April 24, 2025; August 28, 2025; September 18, 2025; and October 23, 2025.
