Nigeria’s GDP rises 3.98% as industries, agriculture strengthen

… finance, agriculture play vital roles to stabilise output.

Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, marking a slight improvement over the 3.86 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024, according to the latest Gross Domestic Product report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

The report read, “Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2025. This growth rate is higher than the 3.86 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2024.”

The quarterly report shows a mixed recovery across key sectors, with agriculture and industry posting stronger real growth while services maintained their dominance in overall output.

Aggregate GDP in real terms stood at N57.03tn in Q3 2025, up from N54.85tn in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

In nominal terms, output rose by 18.12 per cent year-on-year to N113.59tn, compared with N96.16tn in Q3 2024.

The services sector contributed the largest share at 53.02 per cent, followed by agriculture at 31.21 per cent.

The NBS noted that the economy had sustained moderate expansion despite lingering constraints, highlighting stronger activities in crop production, telecommunications, real estate, trade and financial services.

The report covers all 46 economic activities classified into oil and non-oil sectors.

The oil sector posted a real growth rate of 5.84 per cent, up from 5.66 per cent in Q3 2024.

Average crude oil production rose to 1.64 million barrels per day from 1.47 million barrels per day a year earlier, though it fell short of the 1.68 million barrels per day recorded in Q2 2025.

Quarter-on-quarter, the sector contracted by 5.53 per cent. Its contribution to real GDP increased marginally to 3.44 per cent from 3.38 per cent in the same period of 2024.

In contrast, the non-oil sector expanded by 3.91 per cent, outperforming both Q3 2024 (3.79 per cent) and Q2 2025 (3.64 per cent).

Agriculture grew by 3.79 per cent, improving significantly from the previous year’s 2.55 per cent.

Crop production remained the backbone of agricultural output, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the sector’s nominal value. The sector contributed 31.21 per cent to real GDP in the period.

Manufacturing growth slowed to 1.25 per cent in real terms, down slightly from 1.74 per cent in Q2 2025.

The sector’s share of real GDP fell to 7.62 per cent, compared with 7.82 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024.

Nominal growth was subdued at 3.45 per cent, far below the 13.83 per cent posted a year earlier.

Construction grew by 5.57 per cent in real terms, though this represented a modest decline from the 6.80 per cent posted in 2024. Its contribution to the economy edged up to 3.80 per cent.

Trade, which remains central to household consumption and retail activity, posted a real growth rate of 1.98 per cent, improving slightly from 1.69 per cent in Q3 2024. The sector accounted for 16.42 per cent of total output.

Information and communication services continued to outperform most major activities. Telecommunications and information services drove a real growth rate of 5.78 per cent for the broader ICT sector.

Despite a quarterly contraction, ICT contributed 9.10 per cent to real GDP, up from 8.95 per cent in the same period of 2024.

Real estate—one of the strongest performers—saw its nominal output surge by 89.34 per cent year-on-year, though real growth was modest at 3.50 per cent.

The sector contributed 13.36 per cent to real GDP, a slight decline from the 13.42 per cent recorded a year earlier but higher than the previous quarter’s 12.80 per cent.

Financial and insurance services grew sharply in real terms at 19.63 per cent, driven by stronger performance in financial institutions.

However, their combined contribution to GDP fell to 2.65 per cent from 3.23 per cent in Q2 2025. Nominal growth stood at 40.55 per cent.

Human health and social services slowed to 2.89 per cent in real terms, down from 3.79 per cent in Q3 2024.

Education grew by 2.51 per cent, slightly above the previous year. Public administration recorded real growth of 2.12 per cent, marginally lower than the preceding year.

The report shows that while Nigeria sustained positive momentum across most sectors, the pace of growth remains uneven.

Oil sector volatility, subdued manufacturing, and weaker quarterly performances in several activities highlight ongoing vulnerabilities.

However, strong gains in ICT, finance, agriculture and trade helped stabilise overall output.

The Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, noted in the preface that the quarterly estimates are benchmarked to the rebased national accounts to ensure consistency, adding that the Q3 results reflect continued improvements in data quality and sectoral coverage.

Earlier in October 2025, the International Monetary Fund revised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook upward, projecting a 3.9 per cent GDP expansion in 2025, a growth that it pegged on higher oil production, stronger investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal stance as key drivers.

Speaking at the press conference to mark the launch of the October edition of the World Economic Outlook report, the Chief of the IMF Research Department, Deniz Igan, said, “Yes, we have revised Nigeria’s growth outlook upwards. For 2025, we now project GDP growth at 3.9 per cent, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than our earlier forecast. We have also upgraded the 2026 growth projection by 0.9 percentage points to 4.2 per cent.

“In fact, the 2024 growth figure has also been revised upward to 4.1 per cent, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than previously estimated.”