Manny Ita –
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest Balance of Payments report has confirmed a significant structural pivot in the nation’s economy, revealing that the current account surplus narrowed to $14.04 billion in 2025 from $19.03 billion the previous year. This contraction is primarily attributed to a 14.41% decline in crude oil exports, which fell to $31.54 billion as the state increasingly diverts its primary resource to the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery for domestic processing. While the shift has placed immediate pressure on traditional foreign exchange earnings from raw crude, the goods account managed a resilient surplus of $14.51 billion, bolstered by the refinery’s own refined product exports worth $5.85 billion.
”The emergence of domestic refining capacity is fundamentally changing both import and export patterns,” noted industry analysts, highlighting that for the first time in decades, Nigeria recorded crude oil “imports” of $3.74 billion specifically to feed the Lekki-based facility. This internal diversion is creating a short-term vacuum in oil receipts that historically supported the national budget and currency stability. However, the trade-off is becoming visible in the sharp reduction of fuel import dependence; petroleum product imports fell by nearly 29% to $10.00 billion in 2025, as locally refined petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel began to satisfy a larger portion of the 60.2 million-litre daily domestic demand.
Economic experts argue that this “trade flow reversal” is a necessary evolution toward long-term external stability, despite the temporary narrowing of the surplus. By transitioning from a net importer of expensive refined fuel to an emerging exporter of petrochemicals, Nigeria is effectively insulating its economy from global supply shocks that have historically devalued the Naira. “The strategic value lies in supply security and reduced scarcity risk,” noted Dr. Muda Yusuf, who described the refinery as a major stabilizing factor for national energy security. As the facility moves toward full capacity in 2026, the focus is shifting from a raw-material export economy to a value-added manufacturing hub, a move that analysts predict will eventually lead to a more diversified and resilient external account.
