Manny Ita
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has proposed a plan for the United States to manage Venezuela’s energy industry, claiming the move would generate “billions of dollars in profit” for American companies.
While the president suggested that U.S. corporations have expressed “huge interest” in the venture, energy analysts and industry experts cited significant logistical, legal, and financial hurdles that could delay substantial production increases for up to a decade.
The proposal follows a U.S. Delta Force operation that captured former leader Nicolás Maduro. Despite the leadership change, the existing administrative structure remains largely intact under Delcy Rodríguez.
President Trump characterized the plan as a matter of national security, noting that Venezuela holds the world’s largest confirmed oil reserves. “We’ll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries, many of whom are using it now, but I would say many more will come,” Trump said during a press conference. He also suggested that the U.S. government could reimburse companies for their initial capital expenditures: “They will be reimbursed for what they’re doing.”
Goldman Sachs analysts stated Monday that a “regime change” in Caracas represents a major “upside risk” for global supply in 2026 and 2027. The bank projected that with U.S. influence, Venezuelan production could rise from 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4 million bpd within two years, eventually reaching 2.5 million bpd.
Experts warned that the Venezuelan oil industry requires an immense capital infusion to address decades of decay. Peter McNally, an analyst at Third Bridge, estimated that restoring production to pre-sanctions levels could cost “tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Key challenges identified by analysts include:
- Decaying Infrastructure: Non-operational wells, pipelines, and refineries require a total overhaul.
- Labor Shortages: Significant loss of trained personnel due to previous economic instability.
- Legal Barriers: Current Venezuelan laws mandate state control through Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA).
”The US oil majors’ main responsibility is towards their shareholders, not the government,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank. “I doubt we will see a rush of interest to get back into Venezuela anytime soon.”
The memory of the 2007 nationalization of assets under Hugo Chávez remains a deterrent. While Chevron operates under a specific license, companies like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips previously exited the market after their assets were seized.
Trump has described these past seizures as “a theft” and insisted on U.S. compensation. ConocoPhillips, which is owed an estimated $10 billion, remains cautious. “ConocoPhillips is monitoring developments… It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments,” a company spokesperson said.
The security environment remains a primary concern for potential investors. Mark Christian, director of business development at CHRIS Well Consulting, stated that firms require “at least a minimal amount of security” and the removal of U.S. sanctions before returning.
Some experts questioned the long-term feasibility of the strategy. Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, cited previous U.S. interventions in Iraq and Libya as examples where energy benefits did not materialize.
”In those cases, the United States has received zero benefit from the oil,” Hirs said. “I’m afraid that history will repeat itself in Venezuela.”
