Elegbede Abiodun
Says when the naira appreciates against the dollar, the naira value of foreign assets held by the monetary authorities may decline when converted from foreign currency.
Cash held outside Nigeria’s banking system fell by N197.68bn in one month to N5.21tn in January 2026, even as the amount of money circulating in the economy remained broadly flat, and bank reserves dropped sharply, according to the latest Money and Credit Statistics released by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The figures showed that currency outside banks declined from N5.41tn in December 2025 to N5.21tn in January 2026, representing a month-on-month drop of N197.68bn. This came as total currency in circulation slipped marginally by N1.74bn to N5.731tn in January 2026 from N5.732tn in the preceding month.
Despite the monthly decline in cash held outside the banking system, the data indicated that a very large share of Nigeria’s physical cash remained outside deposit money banks. The proportion of currency in circulation that was held outside banks stood at 90.91 per cent in January 2026.
This means that more than nine-tenths of cash in circulation was still outside the vaults of banks during the month under review, although the ratio was lower than the 94.33 per cent recorded in December 2025.
The latest reading suggests that while some cash returned to the banking system between December and January, the broader structure of cash usage in the economy remained heavily tilted towards cash retention outside formal banking channels.
A comparison with the same period last year showed that cash outside banks was still significantly higher on an annual basis. In January 2025, currency outside banks stood at N4.74tn, compared with N5.21tn in January 2026. This translates to a year-on-year increase of N473bn.
Similarly, currency in circulation rose by N495.68bn year-on-year from N5.24tn in January 2025 to N5.73tn in January 2026, indicating that the stock of physical cash in the economy expanded over the 12-month period.
The data also showed that the share of currency in circulation outside banks was 90.48 per cent in January 2025, slightly below the 90.91 per cent posted in January 2026. This suggests that although the ratio eased on a monthly basis from December, it remained marginally higher than the level recorded a year earlier.
Data published on the Central Bank of Nigeria website showed that the broad money supply, commonly referred to as M3, fell from N124.41tn in December 2025 to N123.36tn in January 2026.
M3 represents the broadest measure of money circulating in an economy. It includes cash in circulation, bank deposits, and other highly liquid financial instruments held by households, businesses, and financial institutions.
The January decline represents a month-on-month contraction of N1.05tn in overall liquidity within the financial system. Despite the monthly drop, the data showed that money supply expanded significantly compared with the same period last year. Broad money stood at N111.11tn in January 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of N12.26tn.
An analysis of the underlying components of money supply suggests that the contraction in January was largely triggered by a decline in Nigeria’s net foreign assets. According to the CBN data, net foreign assets fell to N29.61tn in January 2026 from N31.51tn recorded in December 2025, representing a month-on-month decline of N1.90tn.
Net foreign assets refer to the foreign holdings of the banking system, including the Central Bank and commercial banks, such as foreign reserves, foreign currency deposits, and other overseas financial assets, minus their external liabilities.
The year-on-year comparison also showed a decline. In January 2025, net foreign assets stood at N33.19tn, meaning the January 2026 level reflects a drop of N3.58tn. The reduction in foreign assets occurred during a period when the naira strengthened in the official foreign exchange market.
The naira ended January 2026 on a stronger footing in the official market, closing at N1,391 to the dollar, compared with its opening rate of N1,431 to the dollar at the start of the month.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the currency largely traded below the N1,425 to the dollar mark throughout January, reflecting relative stability in the foreign exchange market amid improved liquidity conditions.
When the naira appreciates against the dollar, the naira value of foreign assets held by the monetary authorities may decline when converted from foreign currency.
While foreign assets declined, the data showed that domestic liquidity conditions expanded. Net domestic assets increased to N93.76tn in January 2026 from N92.90tn recorded in December 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of N850.76bn.
Net domestic assets represent the financial claims within the domestic economy, including credit to the Federal Government, lending to the private sector, and other domestic financial assets held within the banking system.
On a year-on-year basis, domestic assets recorded a stronger increase, rising from N77.92tn in January 2025 to N93.76tn in January 2026, indicating a growth of N15.83tn over the period.
Further breakdown of the CBN data showed that the narrower measure of liquidity in the financial system, known as M2, also declined during the month. M2 stood at N123.35tn in January 2026, compared with N124.40tn recorded in December 2025, representing a month-on-month drop of N1.05tn.
M2 is a slightly narrower measure of money supply than M3. It typically includes currency in circulation, demand deposits, savings deposits, and time deposits held in banks, but excludes certain institutional or large financial instruments captured under M3.
Meanwhile, narrow money, which represents the most liquid form of money in the economy, increased during the period. Narrow money rose to N42.33tn in January 2026 from N42.14tn recorded in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of N190.76bn.
Narrow money generally consists of physical currency in circulation and demand deposits in banks that can be easily accessed for transactions. The figure also showed a strong annual increase compared with N36.77tn recorded in January 2025, representing a year-on-year rise of N5.57tn.
Overall, the January figures suggest that while domestic credit and transactional money expanded within the economy, the decline in the value of Nigeria’s foreign assets played a decisive role in pushing down the country’s broad money supply during the month.
The movement in monetary aggregates comes amid the Central Bank of Nigeria’s continued efforts to manage liquidity conditions in the financial system through tight monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the foreign exchange market.
With the decline in money supply and inflation rate, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN reduced the benchmark interest rate to 26.5 per cent. This was the second time the MPC cut rates under the current leadership of the apex bank.
The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced the decision on Tuesday at the end of the committee’s 304th meeting in Abuja. Cardoso said, “The Committee decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent.”
He added that the MPC also resolved to “retain the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points” and to “retain the Cash Reserve Requirement for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and 75.00 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.”
This marks the second rate cut under the current leadership of the apex bank, following a similar 50-basis-point reduction in September 2025 and a hold at the November 2025 meeting.
Cardoso said the decision was based on “a balanced evaluation of risks to the outlook,” which indicates that “the ongoing disinflation trajectory would continue, largely supported by the lagged transmission of previous monetary tightening, sustained exchange rate stability, and enhanced food supply.”
He noted that headline inflation eased to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, marking the eleventh consecutive month of year-on-year decline.
According to the governor, “Food inflation declined markedly to 8.89 per cent from 10.84 per cent,” while “core inflation declined to 17.72 per cent from 18.63 per cent.”
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation fell to -2.88 per cent in January from 0.54 per cent in December, which the committee said signalled “a continued softening of price pressures.”
He reaffirmed the MPC’s commitment to “an evidence-based policy framework, firmly anchored on the Bank’s core mandate of ensuring price stability, while safeguarding the soundness and resilience of the financial system.”
Analysts backed the decision of the MPC to cut the rate by 50 basis points, as stakeholders affirmed that the rate cut to 26.5 per cent is mostly viewed as a credibility-building signal rather than the start of rapid easing.
