World Bank foresees Nigeria’s economy at 4.4% growth in 2026
… as Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms.
The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, describing the outlook as the country’s fastest pace of expansion in more than a decade.
According to the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast was revised upward to 4.4 per cent from the 3.7 per cent projection contained in the June 2025 edition of the report, while the 2027 estimate was retained at 4.4 per cent.
The revised figures signal sustained optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term economic prospects, reflecting improving macroeconomic conditions despite persistent structural challenges.
This outlook comes as Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
The World Bank said the anticipated expansion would be driven largely by continued growth in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a modest pickup in non-oil industrial activity.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the Bank noted, adding that services and agriculture would remain the main pillars supporting economic performance over the forecast period.
The report also highlighted the role of ongoing economic reforms, particularly in the tax system, alongside prudent monetary policy, in supporting growth and strengthening macroeconomic stability.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” the Bank said.
According to the World Bank, these measures should help improve investor confidence and further tame inflation. It added that higher oil output is expected to offset weaker international oil prices, boosting fiscal revenues and improving Nigeria’s external balance.
The Bank’s emphasis on non-oil sector growth underscores the gradual impact of Nigeria’s diversification efforts aimed at reducing dependence on crude oil exports. A stronger services sector and improved agricultural output could support job creation, price stability, and a broader government revenue base over time.
For policymakers and investors, the forecast offers cautious optimism that recent reforms may begin to deliver measurable gains, even as Nigeria continues to manage underlying economic vulnerabilities.
