Manny Ita
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2026 to 4.4 per cent, citing improving macroeconomic conditions and the impact of ongoing reforms, a move that reflects growing confidence in the country’s medium-term prospects.
The revised projection, published in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, marks an upward revision from the 4.2 per cent forecast issued in October 2025, and positions the economy on a steadier expansion path amid broader regional recovery trends.
In its outlook, the IMF said Nigeria’s improved forecast is consistent with gradual but widespread economic strengthening across sub-Saharan Africa and noted that macroeconomic stabilisation efforts and structural reforms have supported growth expectations. It maintained that these conditions, alongside a relatively stable global economic environment, helped underpin the upward revision, though the Fund also cautioned that risks to the outlook remain, including geopolitical tensions and fiscal pressures.
The World Bank has also lifted its forecast for Nigeria’s GDP growth in 2026 to 4.4 per cent, matching the IMF’s projection and representing the fastest pace of expansion for the country in more than a decade, according to the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report. The Bretton Woods institution said the increase from its earlier 3.7 per cent estimate reflects strengthening performance in the services sector, a rebound in agriculture and modest gains in non-oil industrial activity. Continued fiscal and tax reforms, along with prudent monetary policy, were identified as key factors expected to support growth and improve investor confidence.
According to the World Bank, sustained expansion in services and improvements in agricultural output will anchor much of the growth, while higher oil production is expected to offset weaker global prices, boosting fiscal revenues and strengthening Nigeria’s external position over the forecast period.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected an even more optimistic outlook for 2026, forecasting that the economy will expand by 4.49 per cent on the back of ongoing reforms, stronger private sector activity and improving macroeconomic stability. In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the apex bank highlighted sustained gains from structural reforms, anticipated improvements in the business environment and expectations of easing monetary policy as supportive of growth. It also forecast headline inflation easing and external reserves rising to around $51 billion.
Together, the IMF, World Bank and CBN projections signal a broadly positive growth outlook for Nigeria in 2026, driven by a combination of domestic reforms and improvements in key economic sectors, even as policymakers and analysts caution that structural challenges and external risks will continue to shape the trajectory of the country’s economic expansion.
