In February, the shortfall widened significantly, with production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of around 360,000 barrels per day.
Nigeria recorded a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in January and February of 2026, according to a THISDAY analysis of data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The data highlighted a persistent gap between projected and actual performance in the oil sector, despite assurances by key government agencies, especially against the backdrop of the 1.84 million barrels per day benchmark oil production in the 2026 federal budget.
According to the data, Nigeria produced a total of 50.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in January, while output declined notably in February, with total production dropping to approximately 41.6 million barrels, bringing cumulative output for the two months to 92 million barrels.
Based on the government’s benchmark in the 2026 budget, the country was expected to produce about 57 million barrels in January and 51.5 million barrels in February, to reach about 108.6 million barrels for the period.
The daily production averages provided in the NUPRC report further illustrated the extent of the gap. In January, total liquids output, according to the data, averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, falling short of the 1.84 million barrels per day target by roughly 210,000 barrels per day.
In the same vein, in February, the shortfall widened significantly, with production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of around 360,000 barrels per day.
According to the report, over the course of the two months, the daily deficits accumulated into the overall shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels, reinforcing the scale of Nigeria’s underperformance relative to its fiscal assumptions.
A breakdown of the figures showed that crude oil production remained the dominant component of Nigeria’s output. In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million bpd, before declining to roughly 1.31 million barrels per day in February, dragging down overall output for the month.
On the other hand, condensate production, while significantly smaller in volume, provided some support to total output. It averaged just over 116,000 barrels per day in January and about 122,000 barrels per day in February.
At the same time, the production gap is coming at a period when global oil prices have shown signs of strength, offering oil-producing countries an opportunity to boost earnings. Higher prices typically allow producers to maximise revenue, particularly when supported by increased output volumes.
However, Nigeria’s inability to ramp up production in line with rising prices means it is unable to fully take advantage of favourable market conditions. Instead of benefiting from both higher prices and higher volumes, the country is currently constrained by sub-optimal production levels.
Checks by THISDAY indicated that the decline in production was driven largely by a broad-based drop in crude oil output across key terminals in the Niger Delta.
For instance, production at the Qua Iboe terminal, one of Nigeria’s largest export grades, declined from about 7.4 million barrels in January to roughly 5.9 million barrels in February, indicating a drop of around 1.5 million barrels.
Similarly, output at the Bonny terminal fell from approximately 7.2 million barrels in January to about 6.2 million barrels in February, showing a decrease of about 1 million barrels.
At the Forcados terminal, production dropped from roughly 7.9 million barrels in January to about 6.5 million barrels in February, representing a decline of approximately 1.4 million barrels.
Also, the Escravos terminal recorded a notable reduction, with output falling from about 4.6 million barrels in January to around 3.9 million barrels in February, a drop of around 700,000 barrels.
Production at the Brass terminal declined from approximately 2.5 million barrels to about 2.1 million barrels over the same period, while the Tulja-Okwuibome stream and other smaller terminals also recorded decreases. Condensate production, which is not subject to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quotas, provided limited relief, according to the NUPRC figures, but was not enough to make up for crude output shortages.
It rose slightly from about 3.6 million barrels in January to roughly 3.4 million barrels in February in monthly terms, but remained too small to counterbalance the fall in crude oil output.
Nigeria has failed to markedly raise crude oil production after a significant upsurge in 2024, despite pledges by key government players to exceed 2 million bpd this year. Oil price has hovered between $110 per barrel to $120 per barrel since the Iran war commenced on February 28 this year.
The country’s inability to increase output in response to higher prices means that it is missing out on potential earnings, as production continues to be constrained across the major terminals.
