Manny Ita –
Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, reinforcing the nation’s position as the largest producer on the continent. According to the February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday, the figures—sourced via direct communication with Nigerian authorities—reflect a month-on-month increase of 37,000 barrels from the 1.422 million bpd recorded in December 2025. Despite this marginal recovery, the output remains approximately 41,000 bpd below Nigeria’s assigned OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd, marking the sixth consecutive month the federation has failed to meet its international target.
While the direct communication data indicates growth, secondary sources cited within the OPEC report presented a slightly different trend, estimating the January output at 1.478 million bpd, which would represent a minor decline from their December estimate of 1.497 million bpd. Nevertheless, the consensus across data streams confirms that Nigeria has successfully warded off competition from Libya, which recorded an output of 1.304 million bpd, to retain its regional top spot. The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, recently noted that when condensates are included—which are not factored into OPEC’s crude-only quotas—total liquid hydrocarbon production for the country sits higher, at approximately 1.75 million bpd.
The ongoing struggle to hit the 1.5 million bpd crude benchmark continues to pose fiscal challenges for the Federal Government, particularly as the 2026 budget is predicated on a significantly higher production assumption of 1.84 million bpd. Industry analysts point to persistent infrastructure bottlenecks, localized security concerns in the Niger Delta, and operational inefficiencies as the primary hurdles preventing a full ramp-up. “The improvement in output comes against the backdrop of sustained efforts to stabilize crude production through enhanced pipeline surveillance and the gradual reactivation of previously shut-in wells,” an industry report noted, while cautioning that “persistent challenges in the oil sector underscore the difficulty of reaching the government’s ambitious two million bpd target by year-end.”
