Manny Ita
ABUJA, NIGERIA — The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, titled “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty,” which projects a bullish performance for the banking sector as the March 31, 2026, recapitalization deadline approaches. According to the report released this week, the apex bank anticipates that the influx of fresh capital will significantly enhance the resilience of the financial system and boost the capacity of banks for credit intermediation, particularly in supporting the national goal of achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
The outlook for 2026 reflects a stance of cautious optimism driven by structural reforms and improved investor confidence. GDP growth is projected to expand by 4.49%, an increase from the 3.89% estimated for 2025. Inflation is expected to moderate to an average of 12.94%, supported by disciplined liquidity management and improved agricultural output. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves are forecasted to rise to $51.04 billion, providing a strengthened buffer against external economic shocks.
As of January 6, 2026, the CBN reports that 19 out of 34 licensed commercial banks have already met the new capital requirements. Under the current mandate, international banks are required to hold ₦500 billion in paid-up capital, a threshold already crossed by institutions including Access Bank, Zenith Bank, and GTBank. National banks must reach ₦200 billion, with Fidelity Bank and Citibank Nigeria recently confirming full compliance through successful capital raises. Regional banks are required to maintain a minimum of ₦50 billion.
”With just months to the conclusion of the recapitalisation exercise, the process is firmly on track,” stated CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso. “Several banks have already met the new thresholds, while others are advancing steadily.”
The CBN noted that the race for capital has triggered strategic realignments, including an increase in rights issues and private placements, alongside a projected wave of mergers and acquisitions for smaller lenders unable to meet the deadline independently. However, the report also identified emerging risks, noting that the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stands at approximately 7%, which is above the 5% prudential limit. The bank warned that this could undermine balance sheets if not contained. Furthermore, the report highlighted concentration risk, suggesting that the intense focus on banking stocks may temporarily crowd out other sectors in the capital market.
The 2026 outlook emphasizes that this recapitalization phase is designed to build stronger, better-governed, and more inclusive financial institutions, drawing comparisons to the landmark 2005 banking reforms. The bank maintains that the dual goals of risk management and profitability will be decisive as the industry enters this new cycle of growth.
