Manny Ita
Nigeria’s fuel supply dynamics shifted sharply in December and January as increased output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery significantly reduced the country’s dependence on imported petrol, marking what industry observers describe as a turning point in the long-running “battle for the pump.” Data from sector regulators show that petrol supply from the Dangote Refinery surged by about 64 per cent over the period, rising to an estimated 32 million litres per day.
The increase in locally refined petrol had a direct impact on imports, which fell by approximately 19 per cent during the same period. Despite the decline, Nigeria still imported an estimated 1.3 billion litres of petrol last month to meet total national consumption, which averaged about 63.7 million litres per day, underscoring the continued gap between domestic refining capacity and demand.
Industry analysts note that while the Dangote Refinery has become a major supplier to the domestic market, imported fuel remains critical to stabilising supply nationwide, particularly during periods of peak demand. The latest figures highlight both the progress made in local refining and the scale of imports still required to keep filling stations supplied.
Commenting on the broader market outlook, Dangote Group President Aliko Dangote warned this week that without sustained growth in local refining and stable crude supply, petrol prices could still face severe upward pressure. He cautioned that prices could “risk hitting ₦1,400 per litre” if Nigeria remains exposed to global crude oil volatility. Current pump prices at NNPC retail outlets are significantly lower, averaging about ₦815 per litre in Abuja and ₦739 per litre in Lagos.
The developments come amid changes in Nigeria’s oil sector regulation. Chief Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan has formally assumed office as the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, becoming the first woman to lead the upstream regulator. In her initial remarks, she identified unlocking “stranded assets” as a priority, with the aim of boosting crude oil production and strengthening the supply base that feeds both local refineries and export markets.
Analysts say the combination of rising local fuel supply, reduced imports and a renewed regulatory focus on upstream production signals a critical phase in Nigeria’s energy reform efforts, with implications for fuel prices, supply security and investor confidence in the sector.
