Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso | Credit: CBN
The Central Bank of Nigeria reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent on 24 February 2026, after the Monetary Policy Committee’s 304th meeting. SAMI TUNJI examines the disinflation trends, foreign exchange stability and banking sector reforms supporting the decision, alongside the fiscal risks that could challenge the outlook.
When the Monetary Policy Committee met for its 304th session in Abuja, it delivered what several analysts had expected by cutting the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent. However, the committee kept other key settings unchanged, retaining the standing facilities corridor around the MPR at +50 and -450 basis points and leaving the Cash Reserve Requirement for deposit money banks at 45 per cent.
The CBN’s policy shift rests on one claim and one constraint. The claim is that disinflation is holding and is being supported by the delayed effect of earlier tightening, exchange rate stability and improving food supply. The constraint is that the same environment still carries risks, including fiscal releases and election-related spending that could push inflation up again.
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, speaking during a press briefing after the meeting, signalled that the rate cut was not a declaration that inflation risk had ended. When asked if Nigeria could now “go to sleep on inflation”, he said, “Caution is our watchword in the Central Bank.”
Disinflation as key trigger
Analysts at Afrinvest earlier noted that Nigeria’s “disinflation trend, alongside sustained accretion to external buffers (foreign exchange reserves up 2.4 per cent since November to $47.8 bn), continued naira appreciation (up approximately 6.7 per cent to N1,355.00/$1.00 in the official market), and stable energy goods prices (notably, PMS), provides the CBN with latitude for policy flexibility.”
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, down from 15.15 per cent recorded in December 2025, according to the Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. This decline came despite earlier projections by analysts that Nigeria’s inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January. The NBS report showed that the Consumer Price Index fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, representing a 3.8-point decrease. The NBS said the January headline inflation rate was 0.05 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in December. The inflation figure was the lowest in five years and two months, since November 2020, when inflation stood at 14.89 per cent. The MPC described January 2026 as the eleventh consecutive month of decline in year-on-year headline inflation.
The disinflation story is clearer when broken down. Food inflation declined 8.89 per cent in January 2026 from 10.84 per cent in December 2025, which the MPC linked to improved domestic food supply, sustained exchange rate stability and base effects. The food inflation figure marked the first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when food inflation stood at 8.66 per cent.
Core inflation eased 17.72 per cent from 18.63 per cent, driven largely by a moderation in Information and Communication services. The MPC also pointed to a short-run indicator. Month-on-month headline inflation fell to negative 2.88 per cent in January 2026 from 0.54 per cent in December 2025. A negative monthly reading suggests that the direction of prices in that month was not just slower growth but an outright decline, even if the durability of that pattern still needs to be tested across subsequent prints.
Speaking at the press briefing after the 304th MPC meeting, Cardoso said the continued deceleration in inflation was driven mainly by the “continued effects of the contractionary monetary policy”, foreign exchange market stability, robust capital inflows and improvement in the balance of payments. He added that these conditions suggested that prior tightening had helped anchor expectations. While the disinflation was central to why the committee saw room to reduce the benchmark rate, it did not loosen system liquidity aggressively as other parameters were retained.
The MPC flagged fiscal risk as releases from the federation account increase, which could pose upside risks to inflation. If fiscal expansion accelerates, it can increase liquidity and weaken the disinflation trend, particularly in an economy where supply constraints are common. In that scenario, the CBN would face a choice between defending disinflation with tighter policy or tolerating higher inflation to protect growth and credit conditions. This is why the cut looks like an incremental test rather than a clear start of a long easing cycle.
FX stability, reserves and recapitalisation
The MPC also linked its disinflation outlook to sustained stability in the foreign exchange market and stronger external buffers. Cardoso disclosed that gross external reserves rose to $50.45bn, providing import cover of 9.68 months for goods and services. The CBN tied reserve accretion to both real-economy flows and confidence. He pointed to higher export earnings and increased remittance inflows as drivers that contributed to foreign exchange stability and investor confidence. Cardoso also referenced favourable trade developments, a current account surplus, rising non-oil exports and increasing diaspora remittances.
The CBN further welcomed the newly issued Presidential Executive Order 09, which redirects oil and gas revenues into the Federation Account, and said the committee acknowledged its potential impact in improving fiscal revenue and reserve accretion. For monetary policy, the relevance is not the politics of the order but the mechanics. If more oil and gas revenue predictably flows through the federation account, fiscal planning can improve, and external buffers can strengthen, particularly if inflows support reserves and reduce pressure for deficit monetisation. However, the same story carries a risk. Higher inflows can also encourage higher spending if fiscal discipline is weak, and the MPC already warned that fiscal releases, including election-related spending, could push inflation up.
Cardoso also laid out a list of risks that can disrupt the external stability underpinning the rate cut. He cited the possibility of global shocks, uncertainties around oil prices, and the effect of pre-election spending if not contained.
The CBN governor further noted that banking sector indicators remained within regulatory thresholds and described the sector as resilient. He noted progress in recapitalisation, stating that 20 banks had fully met the new minimum capital requirements and that a further 13 were at advanced stages of their capital raising processes, which he said were expected to conclude within the stipulated time. He also noted that banks raised N4.05tn in verified and approved capital ahead of the 31 March 2026, recapitalisation deadline set by the CBN.
Cardoso said N2.90tn of the amount, representing 71.6 per cent, was mobilised domestically, while N1.15tn, equivalent to 28.33 per cent, came from foreign participation.
“In summary, 71.67 per cent is domestic mobilisation and 28.33 per cent is foreign participation. This balance, in my view, represents a mix of domestic and foreign, which signals broad investor engagement and confidence in the sector,” Cardoso said.
The CBN governor also had to address stability risks tied to institutions under intervention. Cardoso said depositor funds in those institutions remain secure and that operations continue under close supervisory and regulatory oversight. He said this to prevent recapitalisation anxieties from turning into deposit flight or market rumours, both of which can disrupt the transmission of monetary policy.
A further stability issue is the payments and fintech ecosystem. The governor said the CBN recognised the importance of innovation but would ensure that risks to financial stability were properly managed. “We are advancing work already on a very comprehensive framework for digital assets,” Cardoso said, noting that the process would involve consultation and scrutiny to ensure transparency and long-term resilience. He disclosed that there are over 430 licensed fintech operators in Nigeria and described the segment as systemically important, adding that the CBN was strengthening supervisory oversight to address cyber threats and other emerging risks.
Likely impact of rate cut on Nigeria’s economy
In a statement, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, welcomed the CBN’s decision to cut the MPR by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent, describing it as a signal of growing confidence in the nation’s economic stabilisation. He noted that the decision reflects “strong coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities as the country transitions from stabilisation to economic consolidation”.
Edun explained that the rate cut provides the government with “fiscal space to accelerate investment in infrastructure, energy, agriculture and social services”. He added, “For businesses, it improves access to credit, supports private sector investment, and strengthens job creation in the real economy.”
The Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, earlier told The PUNCH that the marginal cut indicated that monetary authorities were responding to sustained pressures facing businesses.
“The marginal reduction in the benchmark interest rate represents a cautious but noteworthy signal that monetary authorities are beginning to respond to the sustained pressures facing businesses and the productive sector,” Oyerinde said. He added, “While the 50 basis point reduction may not immediately translate into significantly lower lending rates, it reflects a gradual shift toward supporting economic growth without undermining price stability.”
Oyerinde stressed that the overall policy stance remained tight due to the retention of the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45 per cent for commercial banks and other liquidity controls. “With a substantial portion of bank deposits still sterilised, the capacity of financial institutions to expand credit to the real sector may remain constrained in the near term,” he said.
In a policy brief shared with The PUNCH, the Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, described the rate cut as growth-supportive but warned that weak policy transmission and fiscal vulnerabilities could blunt its impact. “This policy direction is appropriate and growth-supportive. It reflects improving macroeconomic fundamentals and reinforces confidence in the economy’s stabilisation trajectory,” Yusuf said. He cautioned that lending rates might remain elevated due to structural constraints, stressing, “Unless these structural rigidities are addressed, the benefits of monetary easing may not fully translate into lower borrowing costs for manufacturers, SMEs, agriculture, and other productive sectors.”
Yusuf added that fiscal consolidation remained the missing anchor. “Without fiscal consolidation, monetary easing could be undermined by continued fiscal pressures and crowding-out effects in the financial system,” he said.
Looking ahead, Cardoso said the outlook suggests that “the current momentum of domestic disinflation will continue in the near term”, supported by exchange rate stability and improved food supply. However, he warned that “increased fiscal releases, including election-related spending, could pose upside risk to the outlook.” He reaffirmed the MPC’s commitment to “an evidence-based policy framework, firmly anchored on the Bank’s core mandate of ensuring price stability, while safeguarding the soundness and resilience of the financial system.”
