Manny Ita –
A new opinion piece by real estate analyst Olabisi Odusanya argues that patience is no longer a profitable strategy in Lagos’ property market, as rising inflation, land scarcity and structural market forces continue pushing prices beyond the reach of many buyers.
According to the analysis, many prospective investors who delayed purchasing property in recent years in anticipation of a market correction have instead found themselves priced out as values continued to surge across key areas of Lagos.
The article referenced sharp increases in land values in locations such as Ogudu and Abraham Adesanya, where prices reportedly rose by more than 250 per cent between 2018 and 2023. It argued that unlike traditional markets where inflated prices eventually correct themselves, Lagos real estate operates within structural conditions that continuously drive costs upward.
One major factor identified was inflation and the rapid depreciation of the naira, which significantly reduced the value of cash savings. The writer noted that while inflation climbed close to 29 per cent in 2023, ordinary savings accounts delivered far lower returns, eroding investors’ purchasing power while property prices accelerated.
The article also pointed to Lagos’ severe land scarcity, especially in high-demand locations such as Lekki, Ikoyi and Victoria Island. Despite thousands of housing units under development, the city’s housing deficit continues to widen, leaving supply far below demand.
Another issue highlighted was the joint venture system commonly used between developers and landowners in prime locations. Under these arrangements, developers often surrender a large share of completed units to landowners while also paying substantial upfront premiums for land access. The article argued that these costs create a pricing floor that keeps property prices elevated regardless of fluctuations in buyer demand.
The writer further criticised government planning failures, including poor infrastructure expansion into developing areas such as Ikorodu, Badagry and Epe, which could help spread housing demand more evenly across the city. Weak regulation, inconsistent permit systems and inadequate urban planning were also blamed for worsening the affordability crisis.
The piece additionally argued that developers increasingly prioritise location over construction quality because buyers remain willing to pay premium prices for properties in sought-after districts. As a result, many homes marketed as luxury developments often rely more on location value than superior finishing.
However, the article warned that buyers also face long-term risks after purchase. Because the Lagos market constantly favours newer developments, older properties can quickly lose competitive appeal, making resale more difficult and forcing owners to add significant funds when upgrading to newer homes.
Odusanya concluded that the Lagos property market now punishes both excessive caution and uninformed buying, stressing that the real advantage belongs to investors who understand the structural forces shaping the city’s housing sector.
